I delayed going to work for 45 minutes today so I could watch the last launch of the Space Shuttle. As I watched the picture-perfect launch, I tried to analyze my feelings. Surprisingly, I was neither sad nor disappointed. I watched every launch I could over the last 30 years, and despite the beauty inherent in watching the majestic ship climb to orbit, I have come to believe that the Space Transportation System, despite 135 launches, not a success. In fact, I have come to believe that, historically, its claim to fame will be the last manned rocket ever designed by NASA.
Exploration is expensive. It has always been expensive. It is also risky. Very risky. Risky in terms of return on investment. Risky in terms of human safety. When you sail into the unknown, you need to be ready for anything, and most of the time you find nothing. And if you do find something new, you aren't prepared for it, since it is new and nothing you could have anticipated.
When asked about the cost and risk of manned space flight, most astronauts talk of the human spirit of exploration. How mankind cannot help but look beyond the next hill. But in reality, only a very small percentage of mankind has that drive. Most people are content to stay home and watch the exploits of these few (and in their minds, crazy) people on TV. Mankind appreciates exploration, but only a tiny sliver of it actually participates in it.
So it should come as no surprise that when asked to choose between a risky, expensive venture or something a little more of a "sure thing", politicians have a tendency to put their money into things other than exploration. Time and time again, projects have been cancelled due to lack of funding. NASA, in turn, has attempted to control the one factor it could: Safety. Remove the risk to life, and exploration becomes more of a sure thing. It also becomes much more expense, since these things tend to balance out.
And so the Shuttle moved, over the years, from a system to quickly and inexpensively explore space to a system that was as safe as money could buy and thus hideously expensive. Lack of funding prevented the construction of additional, upgraded shuttles, so the overall design never progressed beyond the prototype. NASA was never able to leverage lessons learned on the hardware side in a way that could have really transformed the shuttle into what it was intended to be.
But that's OK, because its mission is over, in any case. We're done exploring low earth orbit, and we have been for some time. It's time for the next phase.
Getting back to history, once the explorers have begged, borrowed, or stolen the funds necessary for their expeditions, gone and returned (sometimes a few times), their stories make their way to the next brand of crazy people: The Pioneers. Pioneers are more common than explorers, and they're the hardy souls that go where the explorers have gone, and stay there. They are the first settlers of any new place.
Pioneers differ from explorers in several very important ways: Firstly, they tend to be self-funded. They are families or organizations that put together the resources necessary to go where the explorers have gone. They also expect to profit from this, otherwise they won't go. In the case of low earth orbit, it is now the time of the Pioneers.
Companies all over the US and the world are springing up with the intent to profit from manned space flight. Virgin Galactic, SpaceX, Bigelow Aerospace, Boeing, and others are all committed to settling low earth orbit. These pioneers know what to expect in orbit. The exploration of near space has delivered a wealth of information on the hazards and prospects of the frontier. Even so, not all the pioneers will succeed. It is still a risky business, but it is a groundswell movement, not dependent on the votes of risk averse politicians, that once begun in earnest, will not stop. Others will follow, armed with the knowledge that success is possible.
Columbia, Challenger, Discovery, Atlantis, and Endeavor will be names memorized by children, along with the Pinta, Nina, and Santa Maria. But the time has come for the Mayflower, and brave colonies on the shores of a brave new world.
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